Arroyo's kiss of death, now on Sen. Villar?

“And he (Teodoro) doesn’t believe that GMA (President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo) doesn’t know about this,” he added."

These were the words of an administration party senatorial candidate (Lakas-Kampi-CMD) when asked about, their Presidential candidate, Gilbert 'Gibo' Teodoro's resignation as Chairman of the ruling party.

The cat is out of the bag and the president of the country, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, might as well admit who she is voting for in the coming Philippine elections. She will be hard-pressed not to admit this and we will see a lot of candidate falling out of the said party and we could see its demise in the very near future. Then again, I see the following drama taking place:

1. This could be the grand scheme to confuse the electorate and make them vote for Gibo. People love Gibo but her ties with the Arroyos is hurting his chances. That would bring in a lot of votes from Noynoy, Gordon, and even on Erap's camps. It's a risk but if he wins because of this, the Arroyos will still be part of the administration. It's win-win move with a risk.

2. Sen. Villar will see his numbers tumble because it was said before that the Arroyos endorsement is like the kiss of death and I know he doesn't like this. What will happen if his numbers go down (check number 1)

3. No one will vote for either Sen. Villar or Sec. Teodoro thus giving Sen. Aquino a definitive win that will still be under an Arroyo influence because much of her co-horts are now part of the Liberal Party, which is Sen. Aquino's party and/or she could be the biggest headache the next president would have if she doesn't get her way once she gets elected as congresswoman of the House of Representatives.

Either way, we'll see a huge drama unfolding right before the elections.


(Acknowledgement: Photo courtesy of filipinotimes.wordpress.com)

Lakas-Kampi-CMD: The boat is sinking...

The recent resignation of Lakas-Kampi-CMD Chairman, Gilbert Teodoro, has sent ripples of uncertainty in the ruling party of incumbent president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Party Secretary General, Propsero Nograles expressed disbelief, "Gilbert Teodoro’s resignation is a shock to me and (came) without any consultation from us, the previous leaders of the party,” he said in a text message.

Former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro remained as the administration's bet in the presidential race. However, the buzz now is that, this is the advent of his exit and perhaps withdrawal from the presidential race. We can only guess why and this is my attempt to analyze the current situation. First, he's lagging in the surveys - fourth place in a field of seven candidates. Though less than 20% believe in surveys in this country, you can't ignore the fact that we're a little more than a month away from the elections. If you consistently get six percent in the surveys - that's not a good sign of his 'winnability.'

Second, the administration has been getting a lot of flak recently with the so-called "midnight appointments" that goes against an explicit provision in the constitution not to appoint during elections.

Third, there's this rumor going around that President Arroyo is secretly endorsing another candidate - Nationalista Party's candidate and former Senate President, Sen. Manny Villar. Spate of defections have been happening recently and no less than the close allies of the president are now siding with Sen. Villar.

Lastly, his resignation as Chairman of the party along with the party's president, a secretary general, and a deputy secretary general very recently.

With all the problems plaguing the party plus the deep hatred majority of the electorate has for the current government - it would only be days or weeks from now before we actually see the Lakas-Kampi-CMD party implode. This reminds me of a popular parlor game, "Boat is sinking." You can just hear the party host saying, "The boat is sinking! Group yourselves into..." And if the party sinks, you will see its members scrambling for survival in this game called politics.